天津医药 ›› 2020, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (10): 961-965.doi: 10.11958/20201932

• 临床研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

临床-解剖复合分级系统对CABG近期预后的预测效能分析

白云鹏1,刘现坤1,2,郭志刚1△,陈庆良1,姜楠1,王联群1,王强1   

  1. 1天津市胸科医院心外科(邮编300222);2天津医科大学研究生院
  • 收稿日期:2020-07-12 修回日期:2020-08-23 出版日期:2020-10-15 发布日期:2020-10-30
  • 通讯作者: 郭志刚 E-mail:gzg@vip.163.com
  • 基金资助:
    天津市卫健委面上项目(2014KY34);天津市自然科学基金一般项目(16JCYBJC23300)

Predictive value of clinical anatomical composite grading system for short-term outcome of coronary artery bypass grafting

BAI Yun-peng1, LIU Xian-kun1, 2, GUO Zhi-gang1△, CHEN Qing-liang1, JIANG Nan1, WANG Lian-qun1, WANG Qiang1   

  1. 1 Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Tianjin Chest Hospital, Tianjin 300222, China; 
    2 Graduate School of Tianjin Medical University
  • Received:2020-07-12 Revised:2020-08-23 Published:2020-10-15 Online:2020-10-30
  • Contact: e ee E-mail:gzg@vip.163.com

摘要:

摘要:目的 建立临床-解剖复合分级系统,评价欧洲心脏手术风险评分系统(EuroSCORE)Ⅱ和SYNTAX评分系统对预测冠状动脉旁路移植术(CABG)后病死率是否存在复合作用。方法 回顾性分析行CABG患者的围术期资料。利用EuroSCOREⅡ和SYNTAX评分分别对患者进行风险分级,并根据两种系统分级情况交叉排列,风险分级重新分布,构建临床-解剖复合分级系统。评价该系统的精确度和校准力,并与EuroSCOREⅡ及SYNTAX积分进行比较。结果 1 301例患者院内实际病死率为1.54%(20/1 301)。EuroSCORE不同亚组除术前不稳定型心绞痛和SYNTAX积分差异无统计学意义外,其他变量差异均有统计学意义;SYNTAX积分不同亚组只有年龄、不稳定型心绞痛和30 d死亡的差异有统计学意义;复合分级系统组间比较除不稳定型心绞痛、心功能分级(NYHA分级)及外周动脉疾病外,其他变量差异均有统计学意义。H-L拟合优度检验提示EuroSCOREⅡ、SYNTAX积分及复合分级系统拟合度尚可,ROC曲线分析提示复合分级系统分辨力最佳(AUC=0.862),EuroSCOREⅡ和SYNTAX积分的AUC分别为0.849和0.732(P<0.01)。复合分级系统提高了术后30 d死亡的预测能力,与EuroSCOREⅡ相比,净重新分类指数(NRI)=14.05%,Z=7.205,P<0.01;与SYNTAX比较,NRI=37.85%,Z=4.240,P<0.01。结论 EuroSCOREⅡ与SYNTAX积分的复合分级系统可以提高单一类型评分系统对CABG近期病死率的预测能力。

关键词: 冠状动脉旁路移植术, 非体外循环;模型, 统计学;EuroSCOREⅡ;SYNTAX

Abstract:

Abstract: Objective To establish a clinical anatomic composite grading system and to evaluate the combined effects of the European Heart Surgery Risk Scoring System (EuroSCORE) Ⅱ and SYNTAX scoring system in predicting the prognosis of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Methods The perioperative data of CABG patients in Tianjin chest hospital from July 2017 to December 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. EuroSCOREⅡ and SYNTAX were used to stratify the cardiovascular risk of patients. According to the classification of the two systems, they were arranged and redistributed to construct the clinical anatomy composite grading system. The discrimination and calibration of the system were evaluated compared by EuroSCOREⅡ and SYNTAX. Results The actual hospital mortality for 301 patients was 1.54% (20/1 301). According to the comparison of baseline data after grading by scoring system, there were significant differences between EuroSCORE Ⅱ groups except unstable angina pectoris and SYNTAX. There were significant differences in age, unstable angina pectoris and 30-day death between SYNTAX groups. There were significant differences in other variables except unstable angina pectoris, NYHA and peripheral arterial disease between composite grading system groups. The results of H-L goodness of fit test showed that EuroSCORE Ⅱ, SYNTAX and composite grading system had good fitting degree. ROC curve analysis showed that the accuracy of composite classification system was the best,(AUC=0.862). AUC of EuroSCORE Ⅱ and SYNTAX were 0.849 and 0.732 (P<0.01). This indicates that the composite grading system can significantly improve the predictive ability of 30-day mortality after operation. Compared with EuroSCORE Ⅱ, NRI of composite grading system was 14.05% (Z=7.205, P<0.01), compared with SYNTAX, NRI=37.85% (Z=4.240, P<0.01). Conclusion The composite classification system of EuroSCORE Ⅱ and SYNTAX can improve the ability of single type scoring system to predict the short-term mortality of CABG.

Key words:  coronary artery bypass, off-pump, models, statistical, EuroSCOREⅡ, syntax