1990—2021年全球气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担及其到2040年的预测

doi:10.11958/20250372

天津医药 ›› 2025, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (8): 875-883.doi: 10.11958/20250372

1990—2021年全球气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担及其到2040年的预测

宋姗姗(), 姜敏^△(), 王亮, 黄博臻, 王国玉, 刘馨心, 马思懿

首都医科大学附属北京世纪坛医院（邮编100038）

收稿日期:2025-04-28 修回日期:2025-05-20 出版日期:2025-08-15 发布日期:2025-08-12
通讯作者: ^△E-mail：jiangm1965@sina.com
作者简介:宋姗姗（1999），女，硕士在读，主要从事中医药防治肿瘤方面研究。E-mail：15253063568@163.com
基金资助:
国家中医药管理局基本中医药循证能力建设项目(2019XZZX-JB004)

The global burden of tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer disease from 1990 to 2021 and the forecast to 2040

SONG Shanshan(), JIANG Min^△(), WANG Liang, HUANG Bozhen, WANG Guoyu, LIU Xinxin, MA Siyi

Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100038, China

Received:2025-04-28 Revised:2025-05-20 Published:2025-08-15 Online:2025-08-12
Contact: ^△E-mail：jiangm1965@sina.com

宋姗姗, 姜敏, 王亮, 黄博臻, 王国玉, 刘馨心, 马思懿. 1990—2021年全球气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担及其到2040年的预测[J]. 天津医药, 2025, 53(8): 875-883.

SONG Shanshan, JIANG Min, WANG Liang, HUANG Bozhen, WANG Guoyu, LIU Xinxin, MA Siyi. The global burden of tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer disease from 1990 to 2021 and the forecast to 2040[J]. Tianjin Medical Journal, 2025, 53(8): 875-883.

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目的评估1990—2021年全球气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担和跨国健康不平衡，并进一步预测2040年时的变化情况。方法从美国华盛顿大学健康监测与评估研究中心（IHME）官方数据平台GHDx提取年龄标化的发病率（ASIR）、患病率（ASPR）、死亡率（ASMR）和伤残调整寿命率（ASDR）的估计值及其95%不确定区间（95%UI），数据来源为Global Burden of Disease Study 2021（GBD 2021）的全球气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担研究数据，计算估计年度变化百分比（EAPC），描述全球、地区、国家层面的流行情况，从不同性别、年龄、社会人口指数（SDI）等层面了解疾病的差异，并通过聚类分析、跨国健康不平衡分析探讨整体情况，通过Nordpred模型预测至2040年的流行情况。结果在全球范围内，气管、支气管和肺癌疾病的ASIR在1990—2009年小幅度波动，2009年后开始快速下降，2021年ASIR为26.42/10万人。ASPR呈先升后降的趋势，在2011年达到峰值，2021年为37.28/10万人，而ASMR和ASDR呈总体下降趋势。气管、支气管和肺癌疾病在男性、65~74岁、高SDI地区的疾病负担最重。ASDR负担在全球范围内存在显著的不平等，主要集中在SDI较高的国家和地区，气管、支气管和肺癌疾病的ASDR不平等负担随着时间的推移减轻。预测至2040年，气管、支气管和肺癌疾病的新发病例、现患病例、死亡病例、伤残调整寿命年（DALY）的数量会增加，而ASIR、ASPR、ASMR、ASDR会逐年下降。结论 1990—2021年全球气管、支气管和肺癌疾病总体负担下降，但存在人口与区域差异。未来虽年龄标化率持续降低，但实际病例数仍将攀升，疾病防控需关注增长趋势与资源分配公平性。

关键词: 气管, 支气管, 肺肿瘤, 预测, 全球疾病负担, 跨国健康不平衡

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the global burden of disease and cross-national imbalances of tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer from 1990-2021 and to further predict changes up to 2040. Methods Age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) and 95% confidence interval (95%UI) were extracted from GHDx. The official data platform of the institute for health metrics and evaluation (IHME) and the source of data were the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) for global burden of disease of trachea, bronchus and lung cancer. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to describe the prevalence at global, regional and national levels, to understand the differences in diseases at different gender, age and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels, and to explore the overall situation through cluster analysis, cross-country health inequality analysis and to predict the future prevalence up to 2040 through Nordpred model. Results Globally, the ASIR for tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer fluctuated slightly from 1990 to 2009, and began to decline rapidly after 2009, with an ASIR of 26.42/100 000 in 2021. ASPR showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, reaching a peak in 2011, with a peak of 37.28/100 000 in 2021, while the ASMR and the ASDR showed a general decreasing trend. Tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer diseases showed the highest disease burden in men, those aged 65-74 and in countries and regions with high SDI. ASDR burden showed significant inequalities globally, with a significant positive correlation between ASDR and SDI, mainly concentrated in countries and regions with high SDI, and the unequal burden of ASDR for tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer decreases over time. Predictive analyses found that the number of new cases, current cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer were expected to increase through 2040, whereas ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR were projected to decrease each year. Conclusion The overall burden of tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer has declined globally from 1990 to 2021, but with demographic and regional differences. The actual number of cases will continue to climb in the future, despite the continuing decline in age-specified rates, and disease prevention and control will need to focus on growth trends and equity in resource allocation.

Key words: trachea, bronchi, lung neoplasms, forecasting, global burden of disease, cross-national healthy imbalances

中图分类号:

R734，R181.32

图/表 9

图1 1990—2021年全球气管、支气管和肺癌疾病的ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR变化情况

Fig.1 ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR for tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer worldwide from 1990 to 2021

图2 1990—2021年不同性别的全球气管、支气管和肺癌疾病的ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR变化情况

Fig.2 ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR for tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer worldwide by sex from 1990 to 2021

图3 2021年全球不同年龄段气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担的ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR分布情况

Fig.3 Distribution of ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR for tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer among different age groups worldwide in 2021

图4 1990—2021年5个SDI地区的气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担的ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR变化情况 a—e分别为高SDI地区、较高SDI地区、中等SDI地区、较低SDI地区、低SDI地区。

Fig.4 ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR for tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer in the five SDI regions from 1990 to 2021

表1 1990—2021年按不同SDI地区划分的气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担的EAPC情况

Tab.1 Changes in disease burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer by SDI from 1990 to 2021 [$\bar{x}$（95%UI）]

地区	ASIR	ASPR	ASMR	ASDR
高SDI地区	-0.72（-0.86~-0.58）	0.35（0.10~0.61）	-1.14（-1.24~-1.04）	-1.52（-1.62~-1.41）
较高SDI地区	0.06（0.00~0.11）	0.73（0.67~0.78）	-0.34（-0.41~-0.27）	-0.78（-0.84~-0.71）
中等SDI地区	0.50（0.45~0.54）	0.96（0.92~1.00）	0.12（0.06~0.19）	-0.19（-0.24~-0.13）
较低SDI地区	0.42（0.40~0.43）	0.50（0.49~0.52）	0.39（0.37~0.40）	0.32（0.31~0.33）
低SDI地区	-0.14（-0.24~-0.03）	-0.10（-0.21~0.00）	-0.11（-0.22~-0.01）	-0.23（-0.34~-0.13）

图5 1990—2021年21个地区的气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担随SDI变化的ASIR、ASPR、ASMR、ASDR分布情况

Fig.5 Distribution of age-standardized tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer burden (incidence，prevalence，mortality，DALY rate) by SDI across 21 regions from 1990 to 2021

图6 21个地区的气管、支气管和肺癌疾病ASIR、ASPR、ASMR、ASDR的EAPC的聚类分析结果

Fig.6 Clustering analysis results of the EAPC for age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY rate of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer across 21 regions

图7 1990—2021年全球气管、支气管及肺癌ASDR的SDI相关健康不平等分析 A：斜率不平等指数曲线；B：集中指数曲线。

Fig.7 SDI-associated health inequality analysis of age-standardized DALY rate for tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer globally in 1990 and 2021

图8 1990—2040年的气管、支气管和肺癌疾病的疾病负担的预测模型

Fig.8 Predictive model for the disease burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer from 1990 to 2040

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1990—2021年全球气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担及其到2040年的预测

The global burden of tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer disease from 1990 to 2021 and the forecast to 2040

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