Abstract: Objective To compare the predictive efficacy of EuroSCORE Ⅱ and SinoSCORE in the postoperative mortality of Chinese patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Methods The clinical data of 4 507 patients with CABG at our department in January 2011 and April 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. Cardiovascular risk stratification was performed on patients using EuroSCORE Ⅱ and SinoSCORE. Patients were divided into Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ and Ⅳ groups according to the predicted fatality rates. The mortality rates were predicted in all groups of patients respectively. Predictive effectiveness was analyzed by the analysis of discernment and calibration force. Results The in-hospital mortality rate was 1.35% in all patients, while the mean mortality rate predicted by EuroSCORE Ⅱ was 1.470%±1.215% (95%CI：1.43-1.50), and predicted by SinoSCORE was 2.860% ± 3.454% (95% CI：2.76-2.96). The AUC values of EuroSCORE Ⅱ and SinoSCORE were 0.728 and 0.716. It was found that the calibration degree of EuroSCORE Ⅱ was poor and SinoSCORE was acceptable detected by Hosmer-Lemeshow Test. EuroSCORE Ⅱ underestimated the mortality rates of group Ⅳ, but overestimated mortality rates in other groups of patients. SinoSCORE underestimated mortality rates of patients in group Ⅰ and overestimated mortality rates in other groups of patients. EuroSCORE Ⅱ only achieved good discrimination for patients of group Ⅰ (AUC=0.707), and SinoSCORE achieved good discrimination for patients of group Ⅱ (AUC= 0.754) EuroSCORE Ⅱ overestimated the mortality rate in the isolated CABG group and underestimated mortality rates in patients with other cardiac surgeries. SinoSCORE overestimated mortality rates in group Ⅱ. The AUC values of EuroSCORE Ⅱ and SinoSCORE were 0.694 and 0.687 in isolated CABG group. The AUC values of EuroSCORE Ⅱ and SinoSCORE were 0.772 and 0.669 in CABG combined with other cardiac surgeries. Conclusion EuroSCORE Ⅱ has a good predictive efficacy in the entire group of patients and Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ groups, but has a poor performance in group Ⅳ. SinoSCORE overestimates mortality rates in the entire group and Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ groups, and it underestimates mortality rates in patients of group Ⅰ. The application and establishment of risk models should focus on different heart diseases and different risk levels, and the modeling method of established risk systems needs to be improved.

Key words: EuroSCORE Ⅱ, SinoSCORE, risk models, coronary artery bypass graft