Abstract: Objective To establish and validate the model for predicting the efficacy of oral propranolol for infantile hemangiomas (IHs). Methods The children who received oral propranolol for IHs in Tianjin Children's Hospital and Xinjiang Urumqi Children's Hospital were collected from June 2011 to December 2018 as the model group. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were used to screen out the factors affecting the therapeutic effect of propranolol and establish the poor-effect prediction model. A total of 113 IHs cases treated with oral propranolol in two hospitals from January to October 2019 were collected as the validation group (83 cases with good effect and 30 cases with poor effect). The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to verify the discriminant validity of the poor-effect prediction model. Results A total of 585 children were used as the model group and were divided into good effect group (n=371) and poor effect group (n=214) according to the efficacy. In the modeling group, gestational age less than 37 weeks, the birth weight less than 2 500 g, the sizes of the lesions (the lesion size was 5-10 cm, >10 cm relative to <5 cm), and the age of medication more than 3 months were independent risk factors for poor effect of oral propranolol for IHs. The poor-effect prediction model was established as P=ex/(1+ex), ‘e’ is the natural logarithm, X=-1.082+0.680×(gestational age) + 0.665×(birth weight)－0.920×(medicine age)+0.375×(lesion size 5-10 cm) or (+1.327×lesion> 10 cm). The detection of the fit degree indicated that the fit degree of the prediction model was good (P=0.766), and the area under the ROC curve of the prediction model was 0.779 (95%CI: 0.740-0.818). The area under the ROC curve of external validation for the prediction model was 0.772 (95%CI: 0.639-0.784), which can better distinguish the children with poor effect. Conclusion The accuracy of the model in predicting the probability of oral propranolol for IHs with poor effect as a difference is high, which is helpful to improve the ability of early identification and screening of children with poor effect.