Abstract: Objective: To evaluate the ability of the Biliary Ranson score in predicting the severity of gallstone acute pancreatitis and its prognosis by comparison with APACHE II score and Ranson score. Methods: 328 patients of gallstone pancreatitis admitted into Wuxi People’s Hospital from January 2005 to December 2010 were studied retrospectively. The APACHEⅡ score were calculated in the first 24 hours after admission, so was the Ranson and the Biliary Ranson score within the 48 hours after admission. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to evaluate the ability of Biliary Ranson score and other scoring systems in predicting the severity of gallstone pancreatitis and the occurrence of pancreatic necrosis, mortality and organ failure. Results: Among 328 patients，severe acute pancreatitis(SAP) was identified in 72 patients and mild acute pancreatitis(MAP) in 256 patients. The gender and age between MAP and SAP were of no statistical difference. The scores were correlated significantly between every two systems, respectively. The Biliary Ranson score is more useful in predicting SAP than APACHE II score and Ranson score, and can perform better in predicting pancreatic necrosis in the cases of SAP compared to APACHE II score. The cutoff value of Biliary Ranson score in predicting SAP was 2 in which the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value(PPV), negative predictive value(NPV) were 81.94%, 75.78%, 48.8% and 93.7%, respectively. Conclusions: The Biliary Ranson score is a more valuable score than other scores in predicting the severity of gallstone pancreatitis.

Key words: Biliary Ranson score, scoring system, gallstone acute pancreatitis, severity, prognosis