Abstract: Objective To evaluate the applicability of Gail risk assessment model in predicting the risk of sporadic breast cancer among women in Guangzhou-Foshan area of Pearl River Delta, in order to evaluate its clinical value and efficacy. Methods Data of 416 cases of breast cancer patients and 170 healthy physical examination were retrospectively analyzed including age, body mass index (BMI), age at menarche, age at first delivery, age at menopause, number of full-term births, history of surgery for benign breast disease, estrogen replacement therapy, recurrent breast pain, family history of breast cancer, history of passive smoking, breast biopsy and ethnicity. The Gail breast cancer risk assessment model was used to assess the risk of breast cancer in five years. Results Compared with the benign breast hyperplasia group, the breast cancer group showed older age, higher BMI, higher age of menarche, earlier age of first childbirth and menopause, higher proportion of menopausal patients and higher proportion of patients with recurrent breast pain (all P＜0.05). Among 586 patients, 247 (42.2%) cases were assessed as high risk by Gail model, with a mean risk value of (2.17±0.63)%, and 339 (57.8%) were low-risk patients, with a mean risk of (1.25±0.36)% . The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and Youden index of Gail model were 45.4%, 65.8%, 76.5%, 33.9% and 0.112. Conclusion Gail risk assessment model is not sufficient for the assessment of the risk of sporadic breast cancer among women in GuangzhouFoshan area of Pearl River Delta, and there is insufficient evidence for large-scale promotion and application.

Key words: breast neoplasms, risk assessment, the Pearl River Delta, Gail model