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Application of Gail risk assessment model for predicting the risk of sporadic breast cancer in Guangzhou-Foshan area of the Pearl River Delta
ZHOU Dan, CHEN Pei-xian, YANG Shu-qing, LI Wei, HE Tian-cheng, YE Guo-lin, WU Ai-guo
2021, 49 (8):
874-877.
doi: 10.11958/20201641
Objective To evaluate the applicability of Gail risk assessment model in predicting the risk of sporadic
breast cancer among women in Guangzhou-Foshan area of Pearl River Delta, in order to evaluate its clinical value and
efficacy. Methods Data of 416 cases of breast cancer patients and 170 healthy physical examination were retrospectively
analyzed including age, body mass index (BMI), age at menarche, age at first delivery, age at menopause, number of full-term
births, history of surgery for benign breast disease, estrogen replacement therapy, recurrent breast pain, family history of
breast cancer, history of passive smoking, breast biopsy and ethnicity. The Gail breast cancer risk assessment model was used to assess the risk of breast cancer in five years. Results Compared with the benign breast hyperplasia group, the
breast cancer group showed older age, higher BMI, higher age of menarche, earlier age of first childbirth and menopause,
higher proportion of menopausal patients and higher proportion of patients with recurrent breast pain (all P＜0.05). Among
586 patients, 247 (42.2%) cases were assessed as high risk by Gail model, with a mean risk value of (2.17±0.63)%, and 339
(57.8%) were low-risk patients, with a mean risk of (1.25±0.36)% . The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value,
negative predictive value and Youden index of Gail model were 45.4%, 65.8%, 76.5%, 33.9% and 0.112. Conclusion Gail
risk assessment model is not sufficient for the assessment of the risk of sporadic breast cancer among women in GuangzhouFoshan area of Pearl River Delta, and there is insufficient evidence for large-scale promotion and application.
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