The global burden of tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer disease from 1990 to 2021 and the forecast to 2040

doi:10.11958/20250372

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the global burden of disease and cross-national imbalances of tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer from 1990-2021 and to further predict changes up to 2040. Methods Age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) and 95% confidence interval (95%UI) were extracted from GHDx. The official data platform of the institute for health metrics and evaluation (IHME) and the source of data were the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) for global burden of disease of trachea, bronchus and lung cancer. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to describe the prevalence at global, regional and national levels, to understand the differences in diseases at different gender, age and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels, and to explore the overall situation through cluster analysis, cross-country health inequality analysis and to predict the future prevalence up to 2040 through Nordpred model. Results Globally, the ASIR for tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer fluctuated slightly from 1990 to 2009, and began to decline rapidly after 2009, with an ASIR of 26.42/100 000 in 2021. ASPR showed an increasing and then decreasing trend, reaching a peak in 2011, with a peak of 37.28/100 000 in 2021, while the ASMR and the ASDR showed a general decreasing trend. Tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer diseases showed the highest disease burden in men, those aged 65-74 and in countries and regions with high SDI. ASDR burden showed significant inequalities globally, with a significant positive correlation between ASDR and SDI, mainly concentrated in countries and regions with high SDI, and the unequal burden of ASDR for tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer decreases over time. Predictive analyses found that the number of new cases, current cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer were expected to increase through 2040, whereas ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR were projected to decrease each year. Conclusion The overall burden of tracheal, bronchial and lung cancer has declined globally from 1990 to 2021, but with demographic and regional differences. The actual number of cases will continue to climb in the future, despite the continuing decline in age-specified rates, and disease prevention and control will need to focus on growth trends and equity in resource allocation.

Key words: trachea, bronchi, lung neoplasms, forecasting, global burden of disease, cross-national healthy imbalances

CLC Number:

R734，R181.32

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1 ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR for tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer worldwide from 1990 to 2021

Fig.2 ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR for tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer worldwide by sex from 1990 to 2021

Fig.3 Distribution of ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR for tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer among different age groups worldwide in 2021

Fig.4 ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR for tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer in the five SDI regions from 1990 to 2021

Tab.1 Changes in disease burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer by SDI from 1990 to 2021 [$\bar{x}$（95%UI）]

地区	ASIR	ASPR	ASMR	ASDR
高SDI地区	-0.72（-0.86~-0.58）	0.35（0.10~0.61）	-1.14（-1.24~-1.04）	-1.52（-1.62~-1.41）
较高SDI地区	0.06（0.00~0.11）	0.73（0.67~0.78）	-0.34（-0.41~-0.27）	-0.78（-0.84~-0.71）
中等SDI地区	0.50（0.45~0.54）	0.96（0.92~1.00）	0.12（0.06~0.19）	-0.19（-0.24~-0.13）
较低SDI地区	0.42（0.40~0.43）	0.50（0.49~0.52）	0.39（0.37~0.40）	0.32（0.31~0.33）
低SDI地区	-0.14（-0.24~-0.03）	-0.10（-0.21~0.00）	-0.11（-0.22~-0.01）	-0.23（-0.34~-0.13）

Fig.5 Distribution of age-standardized tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer burden (incidence，prevalence，mortality，DALY rate) by SDI across 21 regions from 1990 to 2021

Fig.6 Clustering analysis results of the EAPC for age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY rate of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer across 21 regions

Fig.7 SDI-associated health inequality analysis of age-standardized DALY rate for tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer globally in 1990 and 2021

Fig.8 Predictive model for the disease burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer from 1990 to 2040

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