• 论著 • Previous Articles
Received:
Revised:
Published:
Online:
Abstract: Objective: To predict the early mortality and postoperative complication in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting(CABG)by SinoSCORE in a single heart center,and access the performance of the SinoSCORE. Methods: To collect the clinical information of patients undergoing CABG in our department. Tne SinoSCORE was used to predict early mortality,access the performance of SinoSCORE predict the early mortality through compare the predictive mortality and the observed mortality.To use Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test access the calibration. Discrimination was tested by determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve(AUC). To evaluate the performance of SinoSCORE on postoperative complications by AUC and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.The optimal cut—off point for SinoSCORE predicting major complications was obtained by the Yonden index.To used X2 test to Compare incidence rate of postoperative complications in two group divided by cut—off point. Results: The overall mean baseline age was(62.8±8.8)years. The observed mortality in postoperative 30 days of all our study patients was 1.99%(22/1103).The predictive mortality of SinoSCORE was 3.01%. The predicted mortality calculated by the SinoSCORE was 3.01% which was slightly higher than the actual mortality.To use Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test access the calibration: X2=3.473,P=0.748,P>0.05.The text Proved SinoSCORE had a good calibration for postoperative early mortality. Discrimination was tested by ROC, AUC=0.751>0.75,that means SinoSCORE showed high discriminatory ability in predicting mortality.SinoSCORE also showed the good calibration power and vary high discriminatory ability for the main complication risk evaluation such as Low cardiac output syndrome, cerebrovascular events,tracheal incision ,MODS and intraoperative/postoperative IABP implantation. Hosmer-Lemeshow: P=0.415,P=0.689,P=0.243,P=0.945,P=0.287. Areas under ROC curve was AUC=0.785,AUC=0.745,AUC=0.829,AUC=0.821,AUC=0.757.Obtained the optimal Cut-off points by calculating the Youden index. The optimal cut-off points for SinoSCORE model predicting early mortality and the above five major postoperative complication was 3.5,6.5,5.5,3.5,3.5,5.5.Conclusion: SinoSCOBE have a good forecast performance for the postoperative early mortality and some postoperative complication in the patients undergoing CABG in our department.And the postoperative complication include Low cardiac output syndrome,cerebrovascular events, tracheal incision and intraoperative/postoperative IABP implantation.
Key words: Mortality, SinoSCORE, Risk factors, CABG
/ Recommend
Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX
URL: https://www.tjyybjb.ac.cn/EN/
https://www.tjyybjb.ac.cn/EN/Y2012/V40/I8/1114